This week, Tony Petrone's hand-rolled, freshly baked bagels came with an apology:
"Due to the rising cost of EVERYTHING, we regret that our bagel prices have to be raised," said the blue paper sign, posted on the cash register at Not Just Bagels in the Dongan Hills section of Staten Island, Tuesday.
The word "everything" was underlined twice, but there is really one major culprit: Skyrocketing flour prices.
Last week, Petrone raised the price for a plain bagel from 65 cents to 75 cents, and the unthinkable -- a $1 bagel -- may be around the corner.
Bagelmakers like Petrone have tried to weather the rising costs for as long as they could, but a global shortage of wheat, coupled with rising demand, have caused bags of flour to nearly double in price. "I hope not, but they keep telling us it's only going to go up," Petrone said gravely. "It's over $20 now for a 50-lb. bag (of flour). You can't make the bagel without flour."
As much as some Staten Islanders may feel that their borough is insulated from the larger city, it is not immune to global market forces and the bad weather that has decimated wheat crops and caused the price of flour to skyrocket.
The impact will continue to push prices higher, and bagels are just the tip of the iceberg.
Wheat futures jumped to a record of more than $11 a bushel Monday, on expectations of tight supply of the staple -- exacerbated by growing world demand and bad weather that has pummeled crops in Canada, Argentina and India -- that could be reflected in higher prices in bread, cereal, eggs and pasta.
"It's an unprecedented move in wheat markets," Jason Ward, analyst with Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis, told the AP. "It's going to affect everything -- pasta, bread, cereal. It's a big deal."