PSoTD

R-word is coming:

Economists and Wall Street seers are quietly hedging their bets after months of rosy reports about a vibrant United States economic outlook. They are now seeing the growing possibility of recession ahead.

Why? Soaring petrol prices, nightmarish home-heating costs this winter, plunging consumer confidence, rising interest rates and falling new-home sales. Similar energy-price spikes, rising interest rates and housing slowdowns played important roles in past recessions. Forecasters are now dusting off the R-word, which almost all of them brushed aside before hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

"People are starting to hedge bets. Obviously it's an uncertain time," said Wachovia Bank global economist Jay Bryson.

Wall Street analyst Ed Yardeni is known largely for his bullish forecasts in the past, but since Rita hit, he has sounded bearish.

"The US economy has been remarkably resilient ... but consumers may start to postpone discretionary spending to build some cushion against higher heating bills on top of rising fuel prices," he wrote to investors this week. "I am not sure that the economy is resilient enough to withstand the one-two punches from the Katrina/Rita tag team."

Mr Yardeni said it was "increasingly likely" that the economy could soon face a six-month bout of stagflation - when prices rise but wages and hiring stagnate.

Gloomier is the Institute for International Economics' energy analyst Philip Verleger. He predicted today's energy crunch more than three years ago and now sees a US saddled with dangerous parallels to President Lyndon B Johnson's (LBJ) in the mid-1960s.

More reading: Politics Plus Stuff, Calculated Risk, The Capital Spectator

U.S. Keeps Minting Millionaires

...the number of millionaires in the United States jumped 8% to 8.9 million, from 8.2 million a year ago.

The firm's Affluent Market Research Program considers millionaires to be households with more than $1 million in net worth, excluding the primary residence.

Just think, what kind of interesting "governing" experience would it be if all 9 million of these millionaires moved to the same state? Let's say they all moved to... Wyoming. They'd easily overwhelm the local population and be able to put their own government in place. No personal taxes? No corporate taxes? What would 9 million millionaires choose for their own state government policies?

I wish they'd quit calling my home. I'm not buying any more steaks from them - that was a one time gift deal.

I see I'm not the only one they pester via phone, regardless of telemarketing laws.

From Business Week:

Last week, I raked Omaha Steaks over the coals as a particularly annoying example of the continuing poor privacy practices of many Web sites. Well, I have to give the company credit for listening at least a little.

A few hours ago, I got a letter via UPS to my doorstep from Omaha Steaks CEO Bruce Simon. He apologized for my receiving repeated, unwanted telemarketing calls and apparently took me off the company's list. (He also said the company is sending me a complimentary box of filet mignon. While I appreciate the sentiment, journalistic scruples will require me to decline the shipment. So if it hasn't been sent out, Mr. Simon, please hold the steaks.)

I don't want the steaks either, I just want them to quit calling after I ask them to quit calling.

A Special session starts Tuesday in the Mississippi Legislature about the challenges left from Hurricane Katrina. From the Clarion Ledger, here's one of Haley Barbour's big priorities:

Barbour said during a news conference last week that he'll allow debate on whether to let casinos move on land. His draft agenda proposes letting casinos "operate in structures other than barges." It also proposes letting casinos operate temporarily, but it doesn't specify where that could happen.

Less than a month after the disaster, and one of the biggest priorities is to expand the capability of casinos of "winning" the wages of other members of the South's economy.

Gotta hand it to the gambling industry, they do not waste time.

I'll tell you, I wouldn't want to be Dr. Andrew Bernstein, author of "The Capitalist Manifesto", and be stuck in a disaster, desperately needing some water or some gas or some medicine, because according to his logic, in order to get it, it should cost him every cent he has.

Again, I don't get it. Price gougers during a disaster are the worst elements of capitalism and just the kind of lack of morality that drives capitalism into criminal activities. Protecting the "right" to gouge doesn't protect capitalism - it eventually limits capitalism by blaring that capitalism has no moral compass and therefore requires further government control.

Of course, Bernstein is too locked into his philosophy to understand his own conundrum. Million dollar prescriptions for Bernstein if he had his way...

A lesson in how not-to-spend upon retirement.

Remember the cheapo metal clicker noisemaker? You'd press the bottom of it, and it would create a loud "click" sound? They came in a variety of looks:

I was under the impression that they were still as available today as they were in my youth.

Wrong.

I need one, or two, for my daughter's Click Beetle model she's building for the Insect Fair this weekend. Can't find one in a store anywhere. Sometime, between my youth and today, the demand disappeared and so did the product from store shelves while I wasn't paying attention.

Exploding national debt. Exploding consumer debt. Oil price shock. Heating costs due to increase greatly. Feeling confident about our economy? I'm not.

So... I've decided to take a look at my unneccessary expenses and cut back. Small savings matter, and in an economy as unsettled as I think this one is, and more to the point, with a future of our economy as unsettled as I think ours is, it doesn't make sense to me to spend frivolously. And since I have this blog, I can use this as a record going forwards as to the success of reducing such expenditures, one campaign at a time.

This week's target: my coffee shop spending. There's a local Hard Bean Cafe that I stop at almost daily for a coffee, and part of the allure is that we have a steady set of regulars at the Cafe and it's really a watering hole of various local folks to talk about the events of the day. That is nice, but I don't think I need to spend $2 per day on it, especially when I can make coffee at home that I like just about as much for a fraction of the cost.

This decision is a little easier to make than it has been in the past - the Hard Bean has gone through two different owners in the past year, and some of the "where everyone knows your name" sense of the place has disappeared. I don't feel like it is somebody I know hoping for my business to help support them. Still, some of the regular customers are more than acquaintances, if not quite friends - lots of relatively long talk about music and concerts and politics and things happening in Central Pennsylvania - and I don't want to drop it completely. So it won't be cold turkey, but just reducing my stop to once a week - when I notice some of my favorite regulars' cars in the parking lot, I'll consider stopping for coffee and conversation.

Such a change may only accomplish perhaps three hundred dollars in savings over the year, but still, these things add up. It isn't likely to be "real" savings, as increased gas prices and heating costs will likely eat all of it. I don't plan on becoming a beacon of frugality, but it's well worth my time to consider how I spend my money. It's not good news for the small business owners of the Hard Bean, but I'm not sure the coffee shop business has a whole lot of good news ahead for it, anyways.

Taipei Times had an interesting piece on what kinds of fish people ought to eat yesterday. Here's the central question:

Should you put your own health, enhanced by the goodness of oily fish rich in omega-3, before the wellbeing of the world's dwindling fish stocks?

The reason this is put as a consumer question is because government and industrial policy isn't dealing effectively with the problem. Some of the same fish that government recommends that people eat for their health are the fish that are at risk of collapse because of overfishing.

The UK food and farming organization Sustain put together a list of fish that are both sustainable and healthy - for now. The 10 fish that fall into this category and are sustainably caught and available in the UK are herring, kippers, pilchards, sardines, sprats, trout (not farmed), whitebait, anchovies, carp (farmed) and mussels.

Another bit of history from a time not really that long ago...

and a reality check of what pandemic will stop in its tracks - all nonessential economy.

A Guide to World Fairs and Festivals
Book by Frances Shemanski; Greenwood Press, 1985

The Royal Easter Show is like an American state fair. It has livestock exhibitions and judgings for large cash prizes. It has sports competitions, fashion and flower shows, famous celebrities performing and a carnival midway. It is sponsored annually by the Royal Agricultural Society of New South Wales, founded in 1822, for the purpose of focusing on the country's agricultural industry and helping folks sell their products. It is always held during the Easter holidays, when school is closed for vacation and more people can attend. The show attracts more than a million people annually. Only once, in 1977, did the attendance fall below the million mark. The show is described as an "expression of our national character." The Society, through the show and other sponsored events, attempts to "promote, foster and encourage the development of the agricultural, mining and industrial resources of the State of New South Wales." The only times that the show wasn't held was during the 1919 influenza epidemic and during World War II, when the army occupied the showground from 1942 to 1946. Otherwise the Royal Easter Show has been held at the Moore Park Showground continuously since 1882.

Buying gas in Wyoming to be more like buying ice cream... sorta...

Gas pump display requirements waived

Due to the inability of older analog gas pumps to display unit prices greater than $2.99 per gallon, Wyoming will waive the display requirements for these pumps for a period of six months.

Currently, Wyoming statute requires that “a device shall be able to display on the face of the dispenser the unit price at which the device is set to compute.”

Because gas prices have risen so quickly, it is not currently feasible for owners to replace these pumps or to obtain conversion kits that may be available.

So, these pumps will show the half-gallon price.

When gas prices skyrocket, what businesses prosper?

Perhaps the bicycle industry, for one...

From The Coloradoan:

Sam Cincotta has a car he refuses to drive - and he's not alone.

"I have a motor vehicle and I drive the car only when it is inclement weather, but now with the gas prices I ride a bike even when it is inclement weather," said Cincotta, 71, of Fort Collins. "I'm a frugal person - that's the going rate for gas and you can't do anything about it, so you just have to work around it."

As high prices reach the gas pumps in Fort Collins, people are tossing in their car keys for a simpler form of transportation and bicycle shops are realizing the benefit.

"We've been busy. We usually slow down a lot more this time of year," said Rob Walton, owner of Spring Creek Recumbent Bicycles, 2111 S. College Ave. "The numbers have been good here and I've heard other places say that they're staying busy, too."

Recycled Cycles has "definitely had a surge in bicycle sales," even after the conclusion of their Bike to School sale on Aug. 29, said Rachel Hassell, operations manager at Recycled Cycles, 4031 S. Mason St.

The store says nearly half of its recent customers have come into the store because of the increase in gas prices.

From New Statesman:

The possibility of a career in the sex industry has been embraced by a generation of gullible young women, not just as a viable option but a genuinely attractive one, writes Kira Cochrane

Way, way back in the mists of time (oh, say, five or six years ago) polls regularly listed the most popular career options for young women as nursing, teaching or, for the particularly exhibitionist, acting. The world turns quickly, though, and this year a survey of a thousand girls between the ages of 15 and 19 found that 63 per cent aspired to be a glamour model, while 25 per cent plumped for lap dancing. Out were the dependability and possible boredom of care work; in were the seedy glamour and possible stardom of the sex industry.

Just a matter of time before some colleges offer a degree program for careers in porn.

Lost in the email of last week was this little note:

Dear Valued Paint Shop User,

Now that Jasc Software has joined Corel, I'd like to welcome you to the Corel family. It's a privilege to serve you and the many other Paint Shop Pro and Photo Album customers around the world.

Corel Corporation has a 20-year track record of creating value-priced, full featured software products like CorelDRAW and WordPerfect Office that millions of people use at home and in the office everyday. I'm thrilled to have Paint Shop Pro and Photo Album join our line-up of leading products.

I'd also like to let you know that this is the last communication you'll receive from Jasc Software. Future email and other forms of communications will come from Corel.

For those of us that have been involved with building web sites since the mid 1990s, Jasc and Paint Shop Pro were a big part of making the building of graphics attainable. It was an easy to use software, and you could create professional appearing images with it. Most importantly, it was cheap, sometimes only 20% or less of the price of a similar piece of Adobe software (you know what). That made it attainable.

The development of the Web owes Jasc more than a passing nod as it disappears into Corel. We salute those who made that company - and their products - what they were and are. Thank you.

We always suspected they were intentional.

As part of what should be the national discussion about class and society, this piece ought to be published in every newspaper and read on every television channel and radio station in the land.

Just one sentence: Being poor is knowing how hard it is to stop being poor.

Go read it.

With the damage from Katrina, anyone else think the national Housing Price Bubble may have popped this week?

Some related reading:

The House of Degenhart: Just Stating The Obvious

Joe Wilcox: The Wrong Gulf

The Deipnosophist: Housing "Bubble" update

CultureKitchen: Hurricane memories, A moment of silence and Rage against the machine

Half Sigma: Further thoughts on abandoning New Orleans

From CNN:

Officials at the Astrodome in Houston, Texas, say the facility is full and cannot accept any more New Orleans hurricane refugees.

Hurricane Prompts Planning in Europe

For the waterlogged Netherlands, whose very name means ``the low-lying country,'' the worst-case scenario would be far more devastating than Hurricane Katrina, entailing a tidal wave strong enough to penetrate the nation's coastal barriers.

The chance of such a disaster is seen as remote. But floods have happened many times in Dutch history, and no one doubts one could happen again - under the right conditions.

...

``I am astounded by the images of New Orleans. This is something you cannot and will not see here,'' said Paolo Canestrelli, director of Venice's tidal forecast center.

Today, the Netherlands is spending $3.7 billion on new projects, in addition to $620 million spent annually on maintaining the current system, farmed out to engineering firms like Boskalis NV and BAM Group NV.

One construction company, Dura Vermeer, has made a profitable business out of building houses that float.

MoveOn.org has setup on their website a place where individuals can offer housing for those displaced by Katrina. I'm impressed and proud of my Central Pennsylvania neighbors that have already done so.

The Truth Laid Bear has a point - at this time bloggers can and should work together to give for the assistance of those hurt by Hurricane Katrina. Today is Blog for Relief Day, and as such, I'm supposed to suggest an organization to contribute towards.

There are many, many good choices, but I'll suggest MercyCorps due to the focus that veteran aid worker Nick Macdonald states:

Our expertise is in helping people return to their homes and restart their livelihoods. If there’s a long, protracted displacement, we’ll focus on where people are and how we can support them in those environments. Once they return, we want to work alongside populations whose losses aren’t covered by insurance to restore the productive assets they’ve lost. Mercy Corps is adept at helping small entrepreneurs who have lost something integral to their ability to earn a living get back on their feet. In post-tsunami Sri Lanka, the losses were boats and fishing equipment. I suspect in this case it will be more complex and varied. But in the end, the goal is the same: to restore the economic livelihoods of disaster survivors.

What charities are you most inclined to give to? Which charities do you wish could have greater funding?

How much impact would a repeal of the estate tax make on the contributions those charities receive each year?

How much funding do the charities actively assisting people in the Katrina disaster receive because of estate tax related contributions?

"I don't know" isn't an acceptable answer for anyone trying to repeal the Estate Tax.