What Happens To Political Blogs on November 3, or December 1...There are thousands of political blogs around the web at this point, focusing on a variety of issues and levels of politics. The greatest congregation of them, however, are looking at the November 2nd elections at this point, and the excitement behind blogs are an extract of the importance of this election and the relative newness of the ease of use of creating one's site using blog software.
So what happens to blogs after November 2nd?
Some are destined, I believe, to become part of the institution they have been assisting. In four years, I expect that
DailyKos will either be somehow integrated into the Democratic Party, or will not exist. Integration isn't a bad thing and doesn't mean that DailyKos would have changed the goal of allowing individuals an opportunity to change the political dynamic, or at least discuss it with others. Rather, integrating the site into the Democratic Party would show the Dems recognition to provide such grassroot tools that allow information and ideas to flow quickly up and down the line. It would also be a recognition, that despite a higher noise to signal ratio in blogs than in more tightly controlled communications, that the increases in the information/imagination level is worth the loss of top rank coordination.
More importantly for those who run blogs such as Kos, or
Andrew Sullivan, or whatever - how will they make money when elective politics are reduced? Will advertising revenue still be there? Will there be appearance money? Or will the nation, collectively say, we need a break from this political intensity, and the traffic and dollars will fade away from the blogs using this mechanism?
And if that happens, who will step into the breach to keep them going? Political parties, newspapers, who else?
There are thousands of smaller blogs out there that won't be facing the same situation. They 're either going to disappear or move to a topic at hand that is more of longterm interest to the writer/reader. They don't have enough traffic as is to sell advertising, and at this point are much more a product of the intensity of this election than anything else. I like politics, and I particularly like the oddities of politics and government, and so after the election I won't be focusing on policy as a general concern, but more potshots of stuff going on around the world. I have some pet peeves - McMansions, chemical lawn applications, the lack of consideration of entomology by the general public - that I might get into from time to time. But even if Bush were to win, in some horrible crime against humanity, I couldn't focus this blog on national politics for another four years. I see that as the role of the larger blogs, particularly those, such as Kos, that allows contribution.
If you take a look at
Technorati, you can see there were over 17000 blog posts on Kerry and over 20K on Bush in the past week alone. That represents a lot of duplicative content postings in the course of the week, and the mind marketplace won't support it. It will be interesting to see what
Blogger and
Typepad show in usage in 2005 - and whether they provide some sort of statistics on defunct blogs.
Obviously, my thoughts here aren't crystalized, but I think I'll post about this topic off and on the next couple of weeks.